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ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - December 2016

Date

14 Dec 2016

Sections

Euro & Finance

Economic Expectations for Switzerland Continue Upward Trend

The ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has
continued its rise in December 2016. Growing by 4.0 points, the index now
stands at 12.9 points. The indicator's current level is therefore far above
the long-term average of about minus 10 points. This marks the
continuation of an upward trend observed since October 2016. When it comes
to the current economic situation in Switzerland, however, experts are less
positive in their evaluation than in the previous month: The corresponding
indicator declined by 5.0 points to a level of 9.7. None of the survey
participants evaluated the current economic situation in Switzerland as
"bad."

The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial
market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-
month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by the Mannheim Centre for
European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS),
Zurich.

Despite the ZEW-CS Indicator increasing for the fourth consecutive time,
around 66 per cent of the respondents expect the Swiss economy to remain
unchanged in the coming six months. The economic expectations for the
eurozone have suffered a setback, with optimists and pessimists now holding
equal shares. The indicator for the USA, by contrast, records a sharp
increase of 24.6 points, now standing at 43.3 points. The slump caused by
the US Presidential Election last month is thereby offset. Donald Trump's
plans to strengthen the US economy appear to have a positive effect on
expectations.

The current survey shows a rise in expectations regarding short-term
interest rates in Switzerland, with the corresponding indicator climbing
10.4 points to a level of 13.3. The indicator for the long-term interest
rates also records an increase, namely by 3.8 points to a current reading
of 56.7 points. None of the respondents expect short-and long-term interest
rates to decline. In line with these results, expectations for stock
prices in Switzerland, measured by the SMI, have fallen. The respective
indicator has lost 9.0 points and now reads 33.4 points.

More detailed results – including survey participants' assessment of
developments in other countries – can be found in this month's edition of
the "Financial Market Report Switzerland" (please note that the URL is case
sensitive): http://www.zew.de/zew-cs-financialmarketreport

You can find a data sheet with the complete results of the survey in the
attached PDF-file.

For more information please contact:
Markus Teske (ZEW), Phone +49 (0)621 1235-372, E-mail teske@zew.de
Lukas Gehrig (Credit Suisse), Phone +41 44 333 52 07, E-mail
lukas.gehrig@credit-suisse.com

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