14 January 2013 by Margaritis Schinas

Predicting future scenarios in EU politics is an important exercise that allows policymakers to plan for future generations and scarce resources. The EU Institutions have commenced this work through the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS project). The first report "Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World" has already been published and further work is currently underway. This article surveys the challenges and opportunities identified in this context : the rise of a global middle class, the emergence of a multipolar world, the diffusion of power from the nation state to non-state actors, the paradoxical ‘less poverty but more new poor’ and growing pressure for as well as growing resistance to global governance. Europe’s future success will depend on its ability to address the challenges of prosperity, democracy, demography, fairness and security in the next 20 years. Europe must ‘keep the values, but change the attitude’, while re-adapting the role of the state from times of abundance to times of scarcity. This can lead to the emergence of a deeper and a more democratic EU that can act as a broker between world powers.

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