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ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - October 2016


12 Oct 2016


Euro & Finance

Economic Expectations Continue to Rise

The ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has
continued its rise in October 2016. Growing by 2.5 points, the index now
stands at 5.2 points. The indicator thus continues the slight upward trend
already seen in the previous month. The indicator for the current economic
situation also recorded an increase, rising by 9.9 points to a current
reading of 17.9 points.

The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial
market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-
month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by ZEW, Mannheim, in
cooperation with CS, Zurich.

The majority of the surveyed experts (69.2 per cent) expect the Swiss
economy to remain unchanged in the coming six months. The share of
respondents who hold this opinion increased by 8.7 percentage points
compared to the previous month. The surveyed experts are, however, more
optimistic in their expectations regarding the eurozone and the USA. The
corresponding indicators both recorded an increase and currently stand at
8.1 and 35.1 points. More than 70 per cent of experts consider the current
economic situation in all three economic areas to be "normal".

According to the current survey, the inflation rate for Switzerland is
expected to continue its increase. For the first time since May 2011, more
than half of the experts (53.8 per cent) forecast an increase in the
inflation rate for the coming six months. Against this backdrop, long-term
interest rates in Switzerland are also expected to rise. The respective
indicator has increased by 6.4 points to a level of 56.5 points. The survey
participants show, however, great pessimism with respect to the Swiss
stock market: merely 37.1 per cent of the experts expect the Swiss Market
Index (SMI) to grow in the coming six months. This is the lowest share
recorded since the survey was begun in 2006.

More detailed results – including survey participants' assessment of
developments in other countries – can be found in this month's edition of
the "Switzerland Financial market report" (please note that the URL is case

For more information please contact:

Markus Teske (ZEW), Phone +49 (0)621 1235-372, E-mail

Maxime Botteron (Credit Suisse), Phone +41 44 332 90 61,