The International Association of Public Transport (UITP) unveiled its scenarios for urban transport in 2025 today at the plenary session of its 59th World Congress taking place in Dubai from 10 to 14 April 2011. It compares the economic, environmental and social impacts of urban transport in a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and in a ‘PTx2’ scenario. It highlights the benefits of doubling the public transport market share worldwide by 2025 and illustrates how to achieve this.

Based on well-documented urban economic and technological development projections and a partnership with the International Energy Agency (IEA), UITP presented how our cities will evolve until 2025 compared to 2005.

Considering that, in 2025, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas, the research reveals that the number of trips made in urban areas will increase by 50% in 2025.

In a business-as-usual scenario, that is to say, following current trends, this means that, between 2005 and 2025:

-         the share of private motorised transport will grow and the volume of traffic on urban roads will increase by 60% with correlated lost hours in traffic congestion;

-         30% more urban traffic fatalities (500,000/year);

-         urban transport energy consumption will reach 890 million tons oil equivalent per year;

-         GHG emissions from urban transport will increase by 30%, reaching 3 billion tons CO2 equivalent per year.

To avoid this, the UITP solution is to double the public transport market share by 2025.

Achieving PTx2 in 2025 entails tripling the number of trips made by public transport and stabilising private car use, with the following benefits:

-         Controlling greenhouse gas emissions with a 25% decrease of GHG emissions per capita between 2005 and 2025. 600 million tons CO2 equivalent could be saved per year compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

-         Preserving energy reserves with 170 million tons of oil equivalent saved per year, that is $140bn (EUR 95 bn) per annum (estimation at today’s price).

-         Keeping citizens healthy with 50% less risk of coronary heart disease and obesity and 30% less risk of hypertension thanks to the 30 minutes of physical exercise provided by daily urban mobility.

-         Saving human lives with 60,000 less urban traffic fatalities per year compared to 2005 and 180,000 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. If a human life is valued at EUR 1 million[1] ($1.4 million), this represents savings of about EUR 180 billion ($250 billion) per year.

-         Creating 7 million more green jobs in cities only on the operators’ side of the supply chain, while making the hypothesis that public transport labour productivity keeps increasing by about 1% per year.

To materialise PTx2, governments, local authorities, public transport operators, the industry and stakeholders need to:

-         develop visionary integrated policies;

-         secure stable funding and investment schemes;

-         create a new business culture;

-         deliver lifestyle services and;

-         develop mobility management.

The UITP PTx2 programme encourages the public transport community worldwide to set ambitious targets to produce the global effect of doubling the public transport market share and to make our cities better places to live.

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Notes to Editors

UITP (International Association of Public Transport) is the international network for public transport authorities and operators, policy decision-makers, scientific institutes and the public transport supply and service industry. It is a platform for worldwide cooperation, business development and the sharing of know-how between its 3,400 members from 92 countries. UITP is the global advocate for public transport and sustainable mobility, and the promoter of innovations in the sector. For more information, please visit www.uitp.org. For more information about the 59th UITP World Congress and Mobility & City Transport Exhibition, please visit http://www.uitpdubai2011.org.

For more information about the Roads and Transport Authority of Dubai (RTA), please visit www.rta.ae.

UITP Press contact: Sarah D'Angelo | Press Junior Manager

Direct phone: +32 (0)2 6636639 | Fax: +32 (0)2 6601072 | sarah.dangelo@uitp.org