ZEW: Trump Election Has Only Minor Effects on Europe

Date

20 Dec 2016

Sections

Euro & Finance

ZEW Survey Among Financial Market Experts: Trump's Election Victory Has
Only Minor Effects on Europe – Except with Regard to the Export Economy

The US economic policy changes pursued by the Trump administration will
have rather small effects on EU Member States with regard to economic
growth, consumption and investment. This is the result of a survey
conducted by ZEW among around 200 financial market experts as part of the
Financial Market Survey in December 2016.

An exception forms the export economy, where a clear majority of 59 per
cent of respondents expects to see negative effects. Responses have been
much more ambivalent regarding long-term interest rates. In view of the US
rate hike, 35 per cent of the experts expect Europe to follow suit.

When asked about the economic development in the USA, a vast majority of
the respondents – almost 86 per cent – expect Donald Trump's inauguration
as President to have positive effects on growth. In this context, public
spending, private consumption, and private investment are seen as the main
drivers. By contrast, the majority of the experts expect to see a reduction
in US foreign trading activity, which in turn will hamper economic growth
as well as lead to a greater focus on domestic economy.

Trump's forthcoming presidency is clearly associated with a negative
development of US national debt: 66 per cent of the surveyed experts
forecast a further increase in the already high US government debt level.
It is therefore not surprising that around 50 per cent of the experts
expect long-term interest rates to rise, and 44 per cent of the respondents
expect an additional rise in short-term interest rates.

For further information please contact:
Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621/1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de