ZEW: Expectations for Chinese Economy Improve Slightly
According to the current survey for February (conducted between 31 January
2017 and 17 February 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved
slightly. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of
international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic
development over the coming twelve months, has risen by 1.7 points compared
to the previous month to a current total of minus 4.2 points. This falls
far below the current long-term average of 4.8 points.
Experts have a more favourable view of the current situation. The
corresponding indicator rose by 1.9 points to a level of 4.3 points. This
is higher than the previous average of minus 5.5 points. This combination
of expectations and an assessment of the current situation paints a
moderately positive view of China's economic situation. This marginally
improved economic outlook could be the result of renewed more favourable
assessments of China's exports. The indicator for export expectations
climbed by ten points to reach a new level of 25.8 points. At 42.5 points,
however, domestic consumption is still assessed more favourably.
Just as it was in January this year, annual growth for 2017 is predicted to
be at a level of 6.5 per cent, whereas the predicted growth for 2018 has
decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 6.3 per cent.
Experts again anticipate an upward trend in property prices across almost
all regions included in the survey. Pricing pressure seems to be
particularly severe in Shanghai and Beijing. In keeping with these pricing
expectations, the economic expectations for the construction sector are
once again slightly more positive. However, the construction sector still
comes in last overall out of all sectors considered in the survey.
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