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ZEW: Expectations for Chinese Economy Continue to Improve

Date

07 Dec 2016

Sections

Euro & Finance

Press release of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and Fudan University in Shanghai on the latest results of the "China Economic Panel" (CEP)

Expectations for Chinese Economy Continue to Improve

The latest survey carried out in November (14–30 November 2016) indicates
that expectations for the Chinese economy continue to improve. The CEP
Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial
market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming
twelve months, has increased by 5.1 to a current total of 5.0 points. The
indicator therefore currently lies only slightly below the long-term
average of 5.4 points. The current economic situation in China is, however,
assessed more negatively compared to the previous month, with the
corresponding sub-indicator falling by 8.3 points to a current level of
minus 5.2 points.

There has been a slight upward correction regarding the expected growth
rate for 2017, to 6.5 per cent. By contrast, the forecasts for the first
quarter of 2017 was corrected downward, from 6.6 per cent to 6.4 per cent.
According to the surveyed experts, export is becoming less and less
significant as a driver of growth in the Chinese economy, with the
corresponding sub-indicator falling by 13.6 points. This is probably due to
the feared restrictions on world trade as a result of the US presidential
election. The experts also assess China's situation significantly less
favourably when it comes to China's share of global trade.

Domestic consumption (private and public consumption) may become even more
significant as a central pillar of the Chinese economy according to the
experts.

For more information please contact:
Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621/1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de

 

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